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July 2026
Monthly Market Intelligence Report
A Region Rebalancing
Population steadies as growth follows new housing, peak-season retail trails its benchmarks, and the resale housing market settles into balance. The July issue, in the numbers that matter.
GPS Population
~420.9K
▲ +0.27% YoY
Q1 Retail Sales
−0.8%
vs U.S. +3.7%
Median Detached
$654K
▼ −5.2% YoY
Hotel RevPAR
$181
▲ +5.8% YTD
Inside This Issue
01
Featured Insight
GPS Population Update
The valley steadies near 421,000, and growth now follows new housing
02
Every Month
Regional Economic Dashboard
Housing, hotels, retail, commercial, air travel and employment at a glance
03
Featured Insight
Retail Sales – 2025 + Q1 2026
Peak-season taxable sales slip 0.8% while every benchmark grows
04
Every Month
Development Pipeline
Nine projects on the move, from entitlement hearings to openings
05
Every Month
Notable Transactions
Recent sales and escrows across the valley
06
Featured Insight
Desert Housing Update
Prices ease, sales rise, and supply tightens to a balanced 4.7 months
07
Every Month
Monthly Sector Outlook
Signals, trends and key drivers across seven sectors
Editor's Note
Welcome to GPS Market Monitor – elevated market intelligence for the Greater Palm Springs region. Each month, we synthesize the key facts and figures of the Greater Palm Springs/Coachella Valley regional economy and provide a rotating presentation of data and intel about the core sectors. As the region’s only dedicated market intelligence firm, our goal for the Monitor is to provide a single, authoritative monthly read that delivers hyper-local data, analysis and insights that serious decision-makers and business builders need to inform decisions and mitigate risk. Data is sourced from federal agencies, state bureaus, and local/regional authorities.
Featured Insight · GPS Population
DOF E-1 Estimates · January 1, 2026
Featured Insight · GPS Population
GPS Population Steadies Near 421,000 – and Growth Now Follows New Housing
The California Department of Finance’s newly released E-1 estimates put the nine incorporated cities at 379,906 permanent residents as of January 1, 2026 – up 891 (+0.24%) after a nearly identical dip the year before. Adding roughly 41,000 residents in unincorporated communities, Greater Palm Springs stands at approximately 420,900 (+0.27% for the year). Net movement over the last two years: essentially zero – a plateau, not a decline. The longer arc remains a growth story: the region has added roughly 120,000 residents since 2000, an increase of about 40% in 26 years, most of it during the 2000s boom.
Permanent-resident population, incorporated cities plus unincorporated areas, 2000–2026. Source: California Dept. of Finance population estimates.
Beneath the flat total, the valley is rearranging itself. Four cities grew – all with active homebuilding: Coachella (+1.5% to 45,300, the valley’s fastest-growing city for a second straight year), Palm Desert (+1.3% to 52,326), Rancho Mirage (+1.1% to 17,318), and Desert Hot Springs (+0.6% to 33,629). Five slipped modestly: Indio (−0.2% to 92,360, still the valley’s largest city), La Quinta (−0.3%), Palm Springs and Cathedral City (−0.5% each), and Indian Wells (−0.7%). Two milestones: Palm Desert edged past Cathedral City into second place, and Coachella passed Palm Springs for fourth – unthinkable in 2000, when Coachella was barely half Palm Springs’ size.
Estimated permanent residents by city, January 1, 2026, with one-year change from 2025 (growing cities in green, declining in red). Source: California Dept. of Finance population estimates.
The regional plateau tracks larger forces – but the county does not share it. Riverside County added 8,995 residents (+0.4%) to reach 2,506,824 – its 26th consecutive year of growth, ranking it fourth in the state, the seventh-fastest-growing county in California, and one of only five million-plus counties to gain population. Statewide, California fell roughly 54,000 (−0.14%) to 39.59 million, its first decline in four years. The DOF is direct about the cause: a full year of restrictive federal immigration policy cut net legal international migration from 248,400 in 2024 to 126,400 in 2025; absent those changes, the state estimates it would have grown by about 66,000. The U.S. as a whole grew just 0.5%.
Jan 1, 2026
GPS Region Population
~420.9K
▲ +0.27% YoY (+1,135)
Nine cities: 379,906 (+0.24%)
Fastest Growing
Coachella
+1.5%
▲ Valley leader 2nd straight yr
45,300 · passed Palm Springs for 4th
2025
Riverside County
+8,995
▲ 26th consecutive yr of growth
2.51M · #7 fastest-growing in CA
2025
CA Int’l Migration
126,400
▼ −49% YoY
vs 248,400 in 2024
City-level detail below reflects the California DOF E-1 estimates of permanent residents as of January 1, 2026 (May 2026 release; 2025 revised, 2026 provisional), with one-year change.
| City / Area | Population (1/1/26) | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indio | 92,360 | ▼ 0.2% | Largest city in the valley; second consecutive small dip |
| Palm Desert | 52,326 | ▲ 1.3% | Passed Cathedral City into 2nd; added 814 housing units, most in the valley |
| Cathedral City | 51,458 | ▼ 0.5% | Second straight annual decline |
| Coachella | 45,300 | ▲ 1.5% | Fastest-growing city; housing stock up 2.4% |
| Palm Springs | 43,893 | ▼ 0.5% | Second straight annual decline |
| Unincorporated GPS | ~40,981 | ▲ 0.6% | Bermuda Dunes, Thousand Palms, Mecca, Thermal, Desert Palms, Sky Valley, Desert Edge, Indio Hills, Vista Santa Rosa (GPS Market Intel est.) |
| La Quinta | 38,815 | ▼ 0.3% | |
| Desert Hot Springs | 33,629 | ▲ 0.6% | Population has more than doubled since 2000 |
| Rancho Mirage | 17,318 | ▲ 1.1% | Reversed 2025 dip as new multi-family came online |
| Indian Wells | 4,807 | ▼ 0.7% | Valley’s smallest and oldest city (median age ~70) |
| Nine-City Total | 379,906 | ▲ 0.24% | +891 residents; GPS region ~420,887 (+0.27%) |
What This Means For GPS – Analyst Notes
- Growth is now built, not found. Every valley city that grew its housing stock by 1.5% or more gained population; every city below that line lost residents. Region-wide, the nine cities added 2,159 homes but just 891 permanent residents in 2025 – building at more than four times the pace of population growth – and the ratio of 1.87 permanent residents per housing unit (vs 2.63 statewide) reflects the region’s uniquely seasonal ownership base.
- A plateau, not a plunge – and a quiet reshuffle. The nine cities remain 48.5% larger than in 2000, and the two-year net change is essentially zero. Within the flat total, the growth corridor (Coachella, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Desert Hot Springs) is pulling ahead of the built-out core, with Palm Desert now the valley’s second-largest city and Coachella its fourth.
- Migration is the swing factor. California’s net legal international migration fell 49% in one year on federal policy changes; absent those changes, the DOF estimates the state would have grown by ~66,000 rather than shrinking by ~54,000. With domestic outflows near 290,000 a year and natural increase drifting toward 100,000, statewide – and regional – totals will move with federal immigration policy.
- Planning implication. Official counts increasingly understate real demand: seasonal residents, second-home owners, and short-term-rental guests make the valley’s peak-season “effective population” run meaningfully higher than 421,000. Demand strategies shift from rooftop counts to the seasonal economy, the east valley’s family growth corridor, and healthcare demand from an aging resort corridor – maturation, not decline.
Greater Palm Springs Regional Economic Dashboard
Residential Real Estate
Median Detached Price
$654K
▼ 5.2% YoY
Home Sales (3-Mo Avg)
708/mo
▲ 3.3% YoY
Homes on the Market
2,965
▼ 10.5% YoY
Months of Sales
4.7
▼ from 5.5 · balanced
Sales in June rose while prices eased – an orderly repricing, not a retreat. Unit sales climbed 3.3% and June dollar volume hit $648M (+3.1%), even as the median detached price fell 5.2% to $654,333 (attached: $454,750, −2.2%). Inventory dropped 10.5%, tightening months of sales to a balanced 4.7, with selling times steady at 51 days and homes trading about 3% below list. The $1M+ brackets drove 54.9% of dollar volume. Source: GPSR Desert Housing Report (MLS)
Hospitality & Tourism
Occupancy Rate
67.5%
▲ 0.9% YTD
Average Daily Rate
$268
▲ 4.9% YTD
RevPAR
$181
▲ 5.8% YTD
June RevPAR
$90
▲ 11.4% YoY
The hotel sector strengthened into summer. June RevPAR jumped 11.4% YoY on 8.6% higher occupancy, led by Indian Wells/La Quinta (+24.3%) and Palm Desert (+24.0%), even as valley room supply slipped 2%. YTD through June, occupancy edged up to 67.5%, ADR rose 4.9% to $268, and RevPAR gained 5.8% – holding strong despite the drop in Canadian tourism and spring’s fuel-driven airfare increases. Room revenue is up 5.5% YTD. Source: VGPS/CoStar
Air Travel · PSP Airport
June Passengers
138,070
▼ 1.2% YoY (May: −7.8%)
YTD Passengers (Jan–Jun)
1.96M
▼ 3.4% vs 2025 · +0.5% vs 2024
August Seats
~174K
▲ 2.75% YoY (+4,700 seats)
October Seats
~341K
▼ 2.9% YoY (−10,200 seats)
June’s 1.2% dip was the year’s mildest – relief after May’s 7.8% drop – but it made five down months in six. YTD traffic trails record 2025 by 3.4% yet still edges 2024: a competitive reset, not an unwinding. June’s recovery was narrow: United Express +34.3% and United +33.7% against declines at American (−14.2%), Alaska (−8.4%), and WestJet (−15.9%). Canadian service is stabilizing (−0.33 arriving flights/day through Oct, improved from ~1/day), and Alaska adds PSP–Santa Rosa Sept 10. The August seat window narrows quickly: capacity slips 0.8% in September and 2.9% in October. Source: PSP International; GPS Business Insider
Employment – Greater Palm Springs
Unemployment Rate
5.0%
▼ 0.4 pt YoY
Labor Force
177K
▼ 2.0% YoY
Total Employed
168.6K
▼ 1.6% YoY
Unemployed
8,500
▼ 11.5% YoY
The unemployment rate in the latest available data in May fell in all nine valley cities, but through a shrinking workforce, not hiring. The labor force contracted to 177,000 and employment slipped to 168,600. Coachella (7.5%) and Rancho Mirage (6.9%) stayed well above the average, while Cathedral City (3.6%) and the West Valley sat near or below 4.5%. Source: CA Employment Development Dept.
Retail & Consumer (1Q 2026 v 1Q 2025)
Retail & Food Services – GPS
$1.892B
▼ 0.8% YoY (−$15.3M)
All Taxable Sales – GPS
$2.432B
→ Flat (+0.0%)
Top City – Retail Volume
Palm Desert
$456.9M
▼ 2.1% YoY
Largest Retail Increase
Indian Wells
+17.5%
▲ Dining +27.5%
Peak-season Retail & Food Services sales slipped 0.8% across the nine cities while Riverside County grew 3.2% – GPS trailed every benchmark. Counting every industry, nine-city taxable sales were dead flat at $2.432B. Gains were selective: autos, apparel, and general merchandise rose while food & beverage stores and home-related categories fell. Indian Wells (+17.5%, dining) and Cathedral City (+2.7%, autos) led; the three largest retail markets all declined. Source: CDTFA Q1 taxable transactions; GPS Market Intel analysis
Commercial Real Estate (1Q 2026)
Industrial Vacancy (Valley)
5.9%
▲ Tighter than IE (7.4–8.8%)
Office Vacancy (Valley)
~6.3%
→ Stable · PS core ~12%
Retail Vacancy (Valley)
~8.0%
▼ vs IE 6.3–6.4%
IE Retail Investment (Q1)
$736.9M
▲ from $356.7M in Q4
A three-speed market. Industrial is the standout – 5.9% vacancy on 17.6M SF, 150–290 bps tighter than the Inland Empire, anchored by Amazon’s 650K SF Desert Hot Springs delivery (~260K SF trailing absorption); flex is the soft spot at 16.1%. Office is a supply-constrained hold: zero SF under construction IE-wide, with Palm Springs medical office effectively full at 2.2%. Retail is bifurcated – El Paseo runs 6.1% vs a valley average of ~8% – yet investor capital is accelerating, with cap rates of 5.3–5.7% and trophy Palm Springs assets trading near 3%. Source: Crexi Intel
Featured Insight · Retail Sales
CDTFA Taxable Sales · 2025 Annual + Q1 2026
Featured Insight · Retail & Food Services
Peak-Season Retail Slips 0.8% as Growth Splinters City by City
Retail and Food Services businesses across the nine GPS cities generated $1.892 billion in taxable sales in Q1 2026 – down $15.3 million (−0.8%) from a year earlier, during the quarter that captures the region’s peak visitor season. The region underperformed every larger benchmark: Riverside County rose +3.2%, U.S. Retail and Food Services sales rose +3.7%, and California’s store-based retail measure stayed positive but slowed to +0.9% by March. Local figures are in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation – so even a small nominal decline implies greater pressure on real sales volume.
Q1 2026 Retail and Food Services sales growth, year over year: GPS nine cities vs Riverside County and U.S. Sources: CDTFA; U.S. Census Bureau.
City results split four up, five down. Indian Wells was the standout at +17.5% ($45.1M), powered by a 27.5% jump in dining. Cathedral City (+2.7%) rode a $10.5M auto-dealer gain, La Quinta (+2.6%) posted the most balanced category gains, and Rancho Mirage edged up 0.6%. But the three largest markets all declined – Palm Desert −2.1%, Palm Springs −2.3%, Indio −3.3%. Together they represent about 58% of nine-city sales, and their combined $28M+ decline outweighed all gains elsewhere.
The category pattern shows selectivity, not retreat. Motor vehicles rose in five cities (+8.0% Coachella, +7.2% Cathedral City, +6.2% Palm Desert), apparel jumped 29% in Indio and 9.3% in Palm Springs, and general merchandise was positive nearly everywhere. On the other side, food and beverage stores fell sharply in five cities (−50% Indio, −34.6% Palm Springs) – declines too large to attribute to consumer behavior alone, as CDTFA classification and reporting changes affect the category. Home furnishings and building materials stayed soft region-wide, consistent with higher borrowing costs and slower housing turnover.
Annual Retail and Food Services taxable sales, GPS nine-city region, 2009–2025. Source: CDTFA.
The quarter extends a three-year cooling arc. Full-year 2025 sales of $6.985 billion were down just 0.2% from 2024 – the smallest of three consecutive annual declines (−3.1% in 2023, −2.5% in 2024) from the pandemic-boom record of $7.415 billion in 2022. Even so, 2025 remained 39% above 2015 and nearly double 2009’s $3.632B. Within 2025: Indian Wells surged 32.8% to an all-time high, Indio rose 1.2% to a record $1.279B, Cathedral City gained 4.4%, while Palm Desert (−2.4%) stayed the region’s largest retail market at $1.654B.
Q1 2026
Nine-City Taxable Sales
$1.892B
▼ −0.8% YoY (−$15.3M)
Retail & Food Services · CDTFA
Q1 2026
Benchmark Gap
−4.5 pts
▼ GPS −0.8% vs U.S. +3.7%
Riverside County: +3.2%
2025 Annual
GPS Region Total
$6.985B
▼ −0.2% · 3rd straight decline
Peak: $7.415B (2022)
Q1 Standout
Indian Wells
+17.5%
▲ Dining +27.5% to $40.4M
~9 of 10 taxable $ from dining
City-level detail below reflects CDTFA Retail and Food Services taxable sales for Q1 2026, with one-year change from Q1 2025.
| City | Q1 2026 Sales | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Desert | $456.9M | ▼ 2.1% | Region’s largest retail market; apparel +2.6% ($77M+ in quarter) |
| Palm Springs | $342.2M | ▼ 2.3% | Largest dining total ($114.5M) but dining −2.3%; apparel +9.3% |
| Indio | $304.8M | ▼ 3.3% | Apparel +29%; autos +$4.7M; food & bev stores −$13.7M |
| La Quinta | $254.9M | ▲ 2.6% | Most balanced gains – positive across seven categories |
| Cathedral City | ~$238M | ▲ 2.7% | Auto dealers +7.2% (+$10.5M) carried the sector |
| Rancho Mirage | $127.5M | ▲ 0.6% | Back to slight growth after weak 2025; dining −13.2% |
| Coachella | $76.0M | ▼ 7.6% | Steepest percentage decline; autos +8.0% |
| Desert Hot Springs | $46.8M | ▼ 1.4% | Dining nearly flat |
| Indian Wells | $45.1M | ▲ 17.5% | Dining +27.5%; largest percentage gain |
| Nine-City Total | $1.892B | ▼ 0.8% | vs Riverside County +3.2%, U.S. +3.7% |
What This Means to GPS
- Retail is not collapsing. The region still generates extraordinary volume – nearly $1.9B in a single quarter, $7B a year – and real strength exists: Indian Wells dining, Cathedral City auto sales, Indio apparel, and La Quinta’s broad-based gains.
- But GPS is underperforming its benchmarks. A −0.8% quarter against county (+3.2%), state, and national (+3.7%) growth means the region entered 2026 with less momentum than everything around it. And because the figures are nominal, the real volume of goods and services sold is under greater pressure than the headline suggests.
- The market is fragmenting. The post-pandemic boom lifted every city and category at once; the current environment rewards specific business mixes, corridors, and customer segments. Auto dealers can carry one city while restaurants carry another; a city can post a record year and open the next in decline. There is no longer a single tide lifting everyone.
- The winners are separating from the rest. The next phase will be decided city by city, corridor by corridor, and category by category – and Q1 2026 suggests that separation is already underway. For operators and investors, location- and category-level analysis now matters more than the regional average.
Greater Palm Springs Development Pipeline Highlights
| Project | City | Type | Stage | Scale | Latest Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Desert Mountain View Business Park Shopoff Realty; Agua Caliente trust land, Hwy 111 at Tipton Rd |
Palm Springs | Industrial | In Review | 2.85M SF · 217 ac | June 3 joint City–Tribe meeting postponed to fall; Draft TEIS comments under review |
Escena Community Expansion Build-out of last undeveloped land in Escena golf community |
Palm Springs | Residential | Entitled | Up to 303 homes incl. 150 apts. | PC approved tract maps + plan amendment (3–1) Jul 28; unit-level approvals still required |
Agua Caliente Fuel – Palm Springs Tribal development; NE corner Lawrence Crossley Rd & Dinah Shore Dr · 3.6 ac |
Palm Springs | Retail / Fuel | Opening | 24 pumps · 9,500 SF store · ~90 gaming machines | Tribe announced Aug 1 opening (Jul 20); incl. 2,900 SF gaming space + 12 Level-3 EV chargers under solar canopies |
Portola Springs Blue Fern Development · Frank Sinatra Dr & Portola Ave |
Palm Desert | Residential | Entitled | 156 single-family homes | Council unanimously denied CEQA appeal May 28, clearing entitlements |
Del Webb Explore (Pulte Homes) Resort-style community, all ages; Phase 1 of Refuge Specific Plan, s/o Gerald Ford Dr & w/o Portola Ave |
Palm Desert | Residential | Under Const. | 332 homes · 71 ac | Homes under construction; first Del Webb Explore community nationally, selling since Feb 2025 |
SilverRock La Quinta Turnbridge Equities designing scaled resort plan after ~$65M bankruptcy purchase |
La Quinta | Resort / Mixed | In Design | 134 ac · 154-key hotel + 445 residences | Court approved settlement plan May 21; site development permit application targeted by year-end |
Cotino · Storyliving by Disney Master-planned community; swimmable lagoon + waterfront district |
Rancho Mirage | Master-Planned | Under Const. | Multi-phase community | Cotino Bay Beach, waterfront dining & retail slated to open in 2026 |
DHS Logistics Warehouse Large-format logistics center |
Desert Hot Springs | Industrial | Entitled | ~1,000,000 SF | Planning Commission approved June 10 despite resident concerns |
Indio Police Headquarters Jackson St & Dr. Carreon Blvd; replaces ~50-year-old HQ |
Indio | Civic | Pre-Const. | $45M project | Council approved project contracts June 17; groundbreaking expected this summer |
Source: GPS city planning commissions and councils
Notable Recent Transactions
Medical Building Sale
Rancho Mirage Medical Facility
Anchor: Vibra Rehabilitation Hospital
70777 Ramon Road, Rancho Mirage
47,008 SF · $22.46M
Buyer: Blue Owl Capital
Country Club Sale
Palm Valley Country Club
39205 Palm Valley Drive, Palm Desert
85,102 SF clubhouse · 208.18 acres · $19.05M
Buyer: Sunback Jung
Hotel Sale
The Three Fifty Hotel
350 S. Belardo Drive, Palm Springs
10 rooms · $3.35M
Buyer: Ouenda Baaissa
Senior Independent Living Sale
Revel Palm Desert
74300 Country Club Drive, Palm Desert
163 units · 201,177 SF · $45.79M
Buyer: Ventas, Inc.
Multifamily Housing Sale
Cathedral Towne Villas
36700 Pickfair Street, Cathedral City
61 units · 50,424 SF · $12.6M
Buyer: Daniel Ferretti
Land Sale
Indian Wells Land – Near Indian Wells Resort Hotel
0 Indian Wells Lane, Indian Wells
7.0 acres · Zoned Resort/Commercial · $6.99M
In Escrow
Source: Crexi Intel
Featured Insight · Desert Housing
CDAR/Rosenthal Associates · June 2026
Featured Insight · Residential Real Estate
Sales Rise, Prices Slip: A Balanced Market Selling at a Discount
The Coachella Valley’s median detached home price ended June at $654,333, down 5.2% from a year earlier; the median attached price slipped 2.2% to $454,750. The pullback is broad: the average-size detached home is cheaper than a year ago in all ten reporting cities, from −0.6% in Bermuda Dunes to −7.8% in Coachella. Homes are selling at an average 3.0% discount to list (vs −2.6% a year ago), and just 9.8% of homes sold over list – back to pre-pandemic norms. Even so, valley homes have generally held the price gains made during the pandemic.
Coachella Valley median detached home price, June of each year, 2003–2026, vs a 5% annual-growth reference. Source: CDAR/Rosenthal Associates; GPS Market Intel rendering.
Activity moved the other direction. June’s three-month average of 708 sales per month topped last year’s 686 (+3.3%), the seasonality-adjusted 12-month average rose to 632 from 603, and June dollar volume reached $648 million (+3.1%). Palm Desert led unit sales at 166 per month and Palm Springs followed at 155 – both up on the year – while La Quinta slipped from 114 to 95. In dollar terms, Palm Springs was the valley’s largest market at $147.3M per month. Context matters, though: seasonally adjusted sales still run about 22.5% below the 2016–2019 norm.
Supply is tightening into the slower season. Inventory ended June at 2,965 units, down 10.5% from a year ago, taking the “months of sales” ratio to 4.7 months (from 5.5) – under the 6.0 threshold that marks a balanced market. Median selling time held at 51 days, in the 40–60-day band it has occupied for over three years. Coachella is the valley’s fastest market at just 18 days; Indio is slowest at 57.
Coachella Valley “months of sales” ratio (inventory ÷ 12-month average sales), 2019–2026. Source: CDAR/Rosenthal Associates; GPS Market Intel rendering.
The high end is doing the heavy lifting. The two brackets above $1 million accounted for 54.9% of all dollar sales in the valley, with the $1M–$2M bracket rising to 117 sales per month from 100 a year ago. Attached-home results were the most uneven: Indian Wells jumped 24.6% while Desert Hot Springs’ small attached segment fell 45%, a reminder that thin-market readings swing hard.
Jun 2026
Median Detached Price
$654,333
▼ −5.2% YoY
Attached: $454,750 (−2.2%)
Jun 2026
Home Sales (3-Mo Avg)
708/mo
▲ +3.3% YoY · $648M in June
12-mo avg: 632 (vs 603)
Jul 1, 2026
Homes on the Market
2,965
▼ −10.5% YoY (−348 units)
4.7 months of sales · balanced
Seasonally Adj.
Sales vs Pre-Pandemic Norm
−22.5%
→ vs 2016–19 baseline
Pandemic peak: +59.4% (Jun 2021)
City-level detail below reflects the price of each city’s average-size detached home (median price per sq. ft. over the last three months × average home size), with 12-month change. Source: CDAR/Rosenthal Associates, June 2026.
| City | Avg.-Size Detached Price | 12-Mo Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian Wells | $2,039,130 | ▼ 1.1% | Essentially at its 2022 high (−0.1%) |
| Rancho Mirage | $1,355,550 | ▼ 3.7% | |
| Palm Springs | $1,172,264 | ▼ 6.1% | Steepest decline among major markets; 17.3% below 2022 high |
| La Quinta | $853,897 | ▼ 2.0% | |
| Palm Desert | $691,711 | ▼ 4.7% | Valley’s highest unit sales: 166/mo |
| Bermuda Dunes | $682,700 | ▼ 0.6% | Smallest price decline in the valley |
| Indio | $614,867 | ▼ 3.3% | Longest selling time: 57-day median |
| Cathedral City | $565,993 | ▼ 1.5% | Second-fastest market: 43-day median |
| Coachella | $462,511 | ▼ 7.8% | Steepest price decline – yet fastest selling at 18 days |
| Desert Hot Springs | $396,854 | ▼ 4.8% | Valley’s most attainable detached market |
What This Means For GPS – Analyst Notes
- A balanced market, correcting in an orderly way. At 4.7 months of supply, a stable 51-day median selling time, and discounts of about 3% – all near pre-COVID norms – the 5.2% price decline reads as measured repricing, not distress. Notably, prices eased while sales activity rose.
- The recovery is real but capped. Unit sales (+3.3%) and dollar volume (+3.1%) both improved, yet seasonally adjusted sales remain ~22.5% below the 2016–19 norm. With 30-year mortgage rates hovering mid-6% and the Fed on hold, the rate-sensitive middle of the market stays constrained.
- Luxury is carrying the dollars. The $1M+ brackets produced 54.9% of all dollar volume, and $1M–$2M sales rose to 117/mo from 100. Palm Springs illustrates the split: its average detached price fell 6.1% even as its dollar sales climbed to a valley-leading $147M/mo – the sales mix is shifting upward.
- Resale supply is falling while housing stock grows. MLS inventory dropped 10.5% in a year even as the nine cities added 2,159 housing units (DOF) – new construction, seasonal and second-home ownership, and rentals are absorbing stock outside the resale market, consistent with the housing paradox in this issue’s population analysis.
Monthly Sector Outlook
| Sector | Signal | Trend | Key Driver / Editor's Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential Real Estate | Cautious | → Stable | New supply keeps outpacing household formation (2,159 units vs 891 new residents in 2025); mortgage rates hover mid-6%; Palm Springs detached prices down ~6% YoY; seasonal and active-adult segments carry the momentum |
| Commercial Real Estate | Neutral | → Stable | Industrial dominates the pipeline (2.85M SF in review in Palm Springs; ~1M SF approved in DHS); multifamily active in Rancho Mirage; soft Q1 retail sales temper retail-tenant demand |
| Hospitality & Tourism | Positive | → Watching | ADR/RevPAR strength through June meets a wary consumer: Q1 dining sales mixed across cities, national leisure & hospitality shed 61K jobs in June on weak seasonal hiring, and summer/fall forward bookings are uncertain |
| Employment | Neutral | → Mixed | All nine cities’ unemployment rates fell YoY (region 5.0%), but the labor force shrank by 3,600 and employment by 2,700 – a lower rate without hiring momentum, still 0.3 pts above county and state |
| Retail & Consumer | Cautious | ▼ Softening | Q1 taxable sales fell 0.8% during peak season while the county (+3.2%) and U.S. (+3.7%) grew; third straight annual decline; growth is now city- and category-specific (autos, apparel, Indian Wells dining) |
| Development Pipeline | Neutral | ▲ Improving | Entitlement flow picked up: ~4M SF of industrial advancing, 450+ homes entitled in Palm Springs and Palm Desert, Del Webb Explore under construction, SilverRock redesign targeting a year-end permit application; public projects add momentum |
| National Macro Environment | Cautious | → Watching | June CPI eased to 3.5% on falling energy, but core holds and July’s oil rebound threatens the relief; payrolls cooled to +57K; Fed on hold with a hike on the table; consumers stretched |
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